The Next War - Operation Attila - D+3 (WP Land Move finished)

Hamburg Stalemate

Not having enough forces to assault 11th German Division defences in Hamburg, the bulk of 2nd Guards Tank Army stopped in front of the city, while one Soviet Division moved South of Elbe to continue the encirclement manoeuvre. Unfortunately, fanatic resistance by a German reserve regiment prevented any further advance.

In the 20th Guards Army area, 94th Guards Division destroyed 42/4 Dutch brigade and 9/3 German Brigade.

2nd and 20th Guards Armies positions at D+3, 18:00 Zulu Time

Final Movements in North Army Group Area

In the final hours of D+3, the rearguards divisions of 3rd Shock and 1st Guards Tank Armies moved forward, getting ready to attack at the following dawn.

3rd Shock Army positions at D+3, 18:00 Zulu Time

3rd Shock and 1st Guards Tank Armies positions, D+3 18:00 Zulu Time

1st Guards Tank Army positions, D+3 18:00 Zulu Time

At 18:00, May 6, 1980 (D+3), a cursory look at the strategic situation in Europe Central Front suggested a triumphant advance of Warsaw Pact's steamroller, with little or no chance for the West to stop it before the Rhine. NATO propaganda had a hard time trying to persuade the public opinion that despite the appearances the battle had just begun, particularly after years of insane declarations about the "forward defence" strategy in West Germany.

Overall situation at 18:00, D+3 Zulu Time
NATO corps are not outlined due to the blurred defence lines  

Actually, Warsaw Pact forces had several problems, and not all of them came with a handy solution.

• The Air Force was in terrible shape and probably unable to contest NATO superiority for more than 2 days
• Poland defection and Czech revolts subtracted at least 15 Division from available forces, leaving a weakened North Germany Front and forcing the other Fronts to overextend their assigned area
• Most Armies only had two more days of supplies available, after which they would have to receive them using railroads and Front Supply Heads
• Lines of communication and supply were fragile and only lightly defended, with several key bridges and crossing constantly hammered by NATO helicopters and airplanes

However, the second strategic echelon of Soviet forces was expected in East Germany starting from D+7. If Pact's forces were able to keep momentum for another few days, the almost continuous flow of second-line Divisions would solve most of the problems.

The Next War - Operation Attila - Timeline

Due to an error in days counting, I have revised and changed the overall timeline of the posts.

The (hopefully) exact timeline is now as follows:
April 29, 1980  D-4  turn 1, tension
April 30, 1980  D-3  turn 1, tension
May 1, 1980     D-2  turn 2, tension
May 2, 1980     D-1  turn 2, tension
May 3, 1980     D+0  turn 3, war begins, WP use chemical weapons
May 4, 1980     D+1  turn 3, war
May 5, 1980     D+2  turn 4, war, Hanover falls 
May 6, 1980     D+3  turn 4, war
May 7, 1980     D+4  turn 5, war, Munich and Nuremberg fall
May 8, 1980     D+5  turn 5, war, W. Germany troops evacuate Hamburg
May 9, 1980     D+6  turn 6, war, WP supply heavily damaged by air attacks
May 10, 1980    D+7  turn 6, war, NEDEFOR formed
May 11, 1980    D+8  turn 7, war, Netherlands Surrender, Denmark invaded
May 12, 1980    D+9  turn 7, war, NATO Operation "Hand of God" starts
May 13, 1980    D+10 turn 8, war, WP supply lines collapsed
                                  WP 2nd echelon troops arriving in W. Germany
May 14, 1980    D+11 turn 8, war, NATO SOUTHAG retreats 75 km
May 15, 1980    D+12 turn 9, war  Hamburg falls

I noticed the error while reading the New York Times from the first day of war:

The Next War - Operation Attila - D+3 (2)

Warsaw Pact Land Movement continues. 
Losses are moderate until now, but the decreasing chemicals effectiveness is giving me some problems. Moreover, without the standard rules +2 modifier in Division vs. Brigade attacks, a well-placed NATO brigade can become a hard nut to crack.

Battle for Hanover

10 Guards Division assaulted frontally the city centre, destroying 4/16 Belgian brigade defending it.

20 Guards Army North pincer had heavy fighting with 8/3 German brigade, that held ground for almost 36 hours stopping 2 assaulting divisions before retreating inside Hanover. Two Czech divisions of the Army rushed in to exploit the breakthrough, but they were unable to complete the encirclement and destroy the Dutch SAM site West of the city.

3rd Shock Army South pincer was not lucky too, as 2/1 German brigade stopped its forward Division at Hameln.

The rest of 3rd Shock Army, with heavy artillery support, smashed BAOR defences around Bielefield / Herford, encircling two German brigades at Gutersloh airport.

3rd Shock and 20th Guards Armies situation

Rush to the Ruhr

1st Guards Tank Army continued moving toward the Rhine. 

1st British Recce Regiment, directly on its advance path, was hit by SSM delivered chemicals and subsequently surrounded and destroyed by 20th and 55th Guards Divisions.

The rest of the Army, even though unable to use the helicopter-ridden autobahn, moved West at double speed and reached the outskirts of the Ruhr. Its spearhead Division, 27th Guards, crossed Lippe river and stopped 30 km from the Rhine.

Inside the Ruhr urban area, the survivors of two Soviet airborne Divisions dispersed and fortified to better defend from the continuous air-to-ground attacks by NATO helicopters.

1st Guards Tank Army advance

The Next War - Operation Attila - D+3

Air War

After several hot discussions in Moscow, Warsaw Pact decided to continue using the saturation tactics in the air struggle against the Western Capitalists.
In North and Central sectors, strong groups of air superiority fighters were assigned, assisted by smaller groups of MIG-21 used to overstretch NATO's air forces.
In the South sectors, Hungarian air units with a small Soviet complement were expected to force the Italians to give up the control of their air space.

It wasn't a good decision.
At sunset of May 6 (D+3) Warsaw Pact held Air Superiority in the North and South sectors, but in the centre American F15 and F4 emerged victorious, opening up a corridor for REFORGER airlift.

Moreover, MIG-21 and MIG-23 losses have been even higher than the previous days, up to the point of questioning Pact's capability to contest air control in the near future. Every airfield in East Germany was littered by damaged or inoperable aircraft, well beyond ground crews' repair capabilities, plagued as always by a spare parts shortage.

Pact Special Forces Assault Phase

In preparation to the assault on I Belgian Corps' positions in Hannover, 3rd Shock Army requested a special forces assault on the Dutch Hawk SAM batteries located 30 km West of the city.

The assault was carried out by 3 Soviet and 1 East German Spetsnaz units and went bad since start. Due to a probable information leak, 4 MI-6 were shot down during the approach phase and the attacking commando was welcomed by 100 West German Police agents and mixed Military Police units, supported by a couple armored vehicles.

After 2 hours of firefight, the whole assault force was killed or forced to surrender without being able to damage the Hawk batteries. 

Pact Airborne Assault Phase

In order to support 1st Guards Tank Army advance toward the Ruhr, 76th Guards Airborne Division was transported to Bottrop, 30 km behind German III Corps Main Battle Area, by helicopters flying in NOE mode. The division had just the time to consolidate before several American Cobra helicopters attacked its positions,inflicting moderate losses. To prevent further losses, the remaining Cobra assault helicopter were quickly grounded by a coordinated SSM-delivered chemical attack on their airports.

Pact Land Movement

In South Germany, after an SSM delivered chemicals disabled German II Corps' artillery supporting Nuremberg's defenders, Czech 1st Army assaulted the city with heavy artillery support. NATO positions were overrun and 3 divisions exploited the breakthrough crossing the Danube, suffering some losses due to a stiff resistance by the retreating 10/4 German brigade.

At the end of the battle, the whole area around Nuremberg had been contaminated by persistent chemicals. In an official declaration released at 22:00, May 6 (D+3), Warsaw Pact spokesman Major -General Yuri Lebedev declared that "in the previous days NATO refused our offer to declare Nuremberg Open City. This ill fated decision brought suffering to the same German citizens NATO declares to protect, and caused the almost total destruction of one of the finest cities in central Europe."

The ruins of Nuremberg

Further South, the Hungarian Army entered Munich, but failed to dislodge the 1st mountain Division Base defending the center of the city. Due to accumulated fatigue and NATO opposition, the whole Army get bogged down around Munich.

Hungarian Army situation

The Next War - Operation Attila - D+2 - Night

Moscow, May 5 1980, 01:30 AM Zulu Time

Comrade Marshal Viktor Kulikov was not in his best mood.
As Supreme Commander of the Unified Armed Forces of the Warsaw Treaty Organization, he had very few reasons to be happy; should he get a vodka every time bad news arrived on his desk, he would have spent the last two days drunk.

Since the beginning, the disgusting Polish defection and the Czech revolts undermined Operation Attila timetable. Now, after 48 hours of combat, even more serious problems arised.

For example the damned NATO helicopters, with their ability to infiltrate even in areas heavily covered by SAM and flak defense systems, with little or no losses.

Hamburg was another problem: the 2nd Guards Tank Army was unable to quickly occupy the city center, giving 11th West German Division enough time to dig in and prepare for a rough defense.

But the biggest worry was the situation assessment he received from Colonel-General of 16 Vozdushnaya Armiya, Vladimir Fedorovich Korochkin. "He has his tongue so deeply stuck in Brezhnev's ass he probably knows what the General Secretary ate this morning", Kulikov thought while taking another cursory look at the 15-pages report.

Beyond bombastic words and stale propaganda, the harsh reality was hidden in a small chart at page 14: during the first two days of combat for air superiority over NORTHAG and CENTAG areas, more than 12% of the available Mig-21 and Mig-23 fighters had been shot down or damaged beyond repair.
Even counting the new reinforcements arrived, the net loss in air to air combat power was at 10%, with NATO reported losses not even remotely comparable. Moreover, the Westerners were able to keep an air corridor to Southern Germany and Italy open, meaning that several dozens of F4s began pouring down from United States into the Central Europe battlefield.

	D+0		D+2
	Steps	Variation	Steps	Variation
MIG 23	42	100%	37	88%
MIG 21	180	100%	162	90%
MIG 19	8	100%	7	88%
SU 20	6	100%	6	100%
SU 19	12	100%	12	100%
SU 17	18	100%	18	100%
SU 7	24	100%	21	88%
MIG 17	48	100%	47	98%
MIG 15	6	100%	6	100%
MIG 21 R	32	100%	32	100%
YAK 28 R	2	100%	2	100%
L 29 R	6	100%	6	100%
IL 14 R	6	100%	6	100%
Transport	22	100%	22	100%

The strategy used in the air fight over Germany was saturation: wave after wave of small Mig-21 groups had to constantly engage the dangerous F-15 and F-4 combat groups, forcing them to stay in combat almost without interruption. When attrition begin to take its toll, stronger Mig-23 and Mig-21 attack groups would give the final punch, acquiring air superiority.
It worked, but at a much higher cost than imagined, and apparently NATO's repair and maintenance capabilities were better than expected.

In other words, should everything remains unchanged, Warsaw Pact Air Forces will become useless in 6 days, 7 at best.

"Six days.....six days. Is that enough, or we will find ourselves half-way to the Rhine, with the head stuck in a bee hive and the supply lines cut down? Why we don't have something like that F15? How hard can it be to design a decent fighter, when you have all the motherland's resources at your disposal?"
Kulikov dropped the report and lifted the phone. "Call me Korochkin, 16 Vozdushnaya Armiya. I want him sober and on the phone in 10 minutes."

Hamburg, May 5 1980, 03:30 AM Zulu Time

After two hours sleep, Sergeant Arkadiy Sidorov woke up when a burst of 155mm shell exploded less than 200 meters from the small building they used to take some shelter for the night. 

He stood up as fast as he could, checking for damage or casualties, then looked down at his hands; the trembling hasn't stopped. 

It started at the sunset of the day before, while his tank platoon was approaching Hamburg outskirts. Things went relatively well until then - just some skirmishes with German covering forces retreating toward the city, and only one tank damaged by a lucky artillery shot.

As they were closing to a small village just outside Hamburg, 3 of their 13 T-72 were hit by something. One exploded in a fire column, hurling the 11 tons turret 100 meters away, while the other two simply stopped and started smoking from every hatch. "Milan missiles!" he thought, ordering evasive maneuvers to his driver. 30 seconds later, the company commander was hit; goodbye to Lieutenant Kholodov and his crew. 

They weren't even able to detect the defender's strongpoints to call in artillery support. Now, he was in command of a T-72 company, with 8 tanks left, his right hand shaking and the perspective of a new day of combat in the street of Hamburg. 

He woke up the rest of his crew and placed himself in front of the radio, to get orders from the Battalion's HQ. 

The Next War - Operation Attila - D+1

Despite showing publicly a granitic determination, some of the Warsaw Pact countries remains deeply worried about the now imminent attack on the Western Proletariat oppressors, code named "Operation Attila".

At the final peacetime meeting of Warsaw Pact's Political Consultative Comitee, only a few hours before the scheduled attack, the Minister of National Defence of the People's Republic of Poland Wojciech Jaruzelsky expresses his concerns about the "dramatic consequences of a war on the People and Communist Party of Poland". He assures full logistical support to the offensive, but announces that "the People's Republic of Poland will be unable to commit its land forces, as they are needed to keep the internal situation under control". On the other hand, the Polish Air Force will be at Pact disposal.

Bad news do not end here for Kremlin; in Czechoslovakia, demonstrations against the "incoming bloodbath" grow bigger every hour, forcing the Soviets to maintain a 3 divisions garrison in the country to avoid the outbreak of a full-scale popular revolt.

War plans are quickly modified to take into account the absence of the Polish Slesia and Pomerania Armies and the weakened Southern Front.

Then, at 0300 of May 3, 1980 Warsaw Pact air units invade NATO airspace. 45 minutes later, more than 30,000 armoured vehicles start crossing the West German border. As in NATO's worst nightmares, chemical weapons are used from the start in support of Warsaw Pact's attack.

Air War

In the North Sector, NATO forfeits any resistance in order to focus on keeping the air transport routes open for the REFORGER troops. Hundreds of Soviet fighter-bombers break loose to support the Pact advance.

In the Central Sector, F-15 and F-4 Combat Air Patrols struggle for hours against apparently endless waves of enemy fighters, inflicting very heavy losses. At the end, they are forced to give up a dearly gained air superiority to the Warsaw Pact.

In the South Sector, the Italian air force succeeds in keeping the sky clear, supported by some additional France airplanes.

Pact Land Turn

Soviet Special Forces attack the lightly defended airport of Ulm, burning several German Helicopters, and a Belgian Artillery Group near Dusseldorf, destroying it.

Soviet 103rd Airborne division lands unopposed directly inside the Ruhr area.

In the North, 2nd Guards Tank Army encounters an unexpected stiff resistance by the Dutch brigade defending Lubeck and the city falls after 20 hours of heavy fighting. The remaining 2 divisions of the Army enter Hamburg's Southern outskirts, but their advance toward the city center is blocked by a German brigade.

2nd Guards Army around Hamburg

Due to the retreat of the Polish Armies, the 20th Guards Army is forced to stretch its area of operation to the North, thus failing to encircle Hannover by North, its main objective for D+1.

The Berlin Army attacks with heavy air and helicopter support the NATO prepared positions in West Berlin, occupying the city and forcing the surviving defenders to surrender.

The 3rd Shock Army overruns the defenses South of Hannover, encircling and destroying several British units in the process.

3rd Shock Army Situation

The 1st Guards Tank Army, after cleaning up the area around Kassel, starts its run for the Ruhr.
The 8th Guards Army attacks the Black Horse Regiment position at Fulda, disloging it without excessive problems.

1st GTA and 8th GA situation

In the South, the 1st Czech Army, reinforced by a Soviet division, moves in front of Nuremberg.
The Hungarian Army, after having a difficult time at finding an intact bridge over the Danube, cross it at Regensburg and attacks the 1st German Mountain Division, forcing it to retreat just North of Munich.

Southern Front situation

Overall situation at D+2

Here's a more detailed situation made with Vassal; not every unit is on the map due to fog of war (NATO player knows of this blog!).

NATO Land Turn

Even inside NATO the political and psychological impact of a full scale war in Europe is heavy.

In the 24 hours preceding hostility outbreak, more than 2,000 Dutch soldiers of NORTHAG I German / Dutch Corps simply disappear, sometimes with the help of their company and battalion officers.

Faced with a 20% desertion rate and the concrete possibility of a complete evaporation of the army, the Dutch government is forced to announce the redeployment of all ground troops to Netherlands, with only the Air Force remaining at NATO's disposal.

While the Dutch units try to quickly disengage from combat, the German forces around Hamburg decide to entrench inside the city and prepare for a new Stalingrad.

NORTHAG defenses around Hamburg

Belgian 16th Division takes charge of holding Hannover, while German 3rd Division acts as a covering force to give enough time to consolidate a defense line on the Weser.

Hannover and the Weser

In the Ruhr area, NATO reaction to the 103rd Guards Airborne landing is ferocious: almost every AH-1 Cobra not contaminated by persistent gas and able to fly is sent to conduct air-to-ground attacks against the Soviet division. The defender's flak has almost no effect on the American helicopters, and after 6 hours of relentless attacks the division suffers a stunning 50% losses in manpower and 90% losses in vehicles.

At the same time, German 7th Division moves to cover the northern flank on the 1st Guards Army advance axis, while the entire British 4th Armored Division is placed to defend the Ruhr outskirts at Hagen, supported by BAOR I Corps artillery. 

To support defense, French attack helicopters use Nap-of-Earth approach to run multiple interdiction missions on the Kassel - Ruhr autobahn, cluttering it with craters and wrecked trucks (not shown on satellite image)

Ruhr defense

In South Germany, 1st Alpine Division around Munich unsuccessfully attempt to disengage from Pact divisions, while the 4th Division prepares to defend Nuremberg and the French II Corps rushes East to plug the holes in SouthAG defense line.

South Army Group Situation

In an attempt to disrupt the Warsaw Pact support and supply lines, a French Brigade of the 11th Paratroops Divisions is transported by helicopters South of Halle. Unfortunately for NATO, the recognition failed to identify a East German tank regiment defending the airport; the French attack is stopped with the help of several air ground support missions, but the bridge on the Saal is destroyed by the French.

11th Airborne Division lands near Liepzig

Overall situation at D+1, 23:00 Zulu Time (GMT+1):

The Next War - Operation Attila - D+0

Following Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in October, 1979, the relationships between the Western and the Communist blocks begins to deteriorate quickly.

As both sides frantically try to cool down the crisis using diplomatic channels, at April 26, 1980 North Korea brings the tension to new levels by attacking southward.

With more and more diplomatic options closing every hour, the contingency plans for an all-out European conflict are put into effect and both sides start mobilisation and troop movements.

At May 2, 1980, after 4 days of sabre-rattling, Warsaw Pact is ready to cross the border and put an end to the Cold War.