Friday, 2 May 2014

The Next War - Operation Attila D+4, Dawn

Kamen, West Germany, D+4 0440 Zulu Time

"Recon One, Command. Smoke is on the way, one minute. Move back at full speed and delimit the mined area. Start with the North side. Tank company is already there to cover you, on hill 121, over."

"Command, Recon One. executing now, over."

As soon as the armored vehicles started to move back, French 155 howitzer opened fire and two of the Company's four BRDM exploded. The rest of the Soviet troop transports hastily retreated following the same route used to advance in the minefield, while the two BMP Motorized Battalions following the Regimental Recon Company halted in the forest, three hundred meters behind.

"What a nice start" Alexander Nekrasov said loudly. It took fifteen years in the Army to become Colonel of the 29th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment, 20th Guards Motorized Division, and here's the result.
"How's possible that after four days of war the high brasses didn't learn anything yet? A reconnaissance in force against a prepared NATO position supported by heavy artillery and helicopters, in urban terrain. What a smart idea. Moreover, the damned French artillery mined the approach route."

Thirty minutes after, Recon company had delimited the minefield with no further attacks from NATO.
"They're waiting our main forces moves out in the open before starting the real dance. I know it, and I cannot do a damn thing about it."

"Twenty Nine all, Command. Execute Plan A, over". All units acknowledged.
One minute later, sixty five howitzer and twelve rocket launchers opened fire on the enemy positions at Dortmund. After twenty minutes pounding, seventy BMP moved out of the forest and advanced South West toward to city.

French artillery began firing after 5 minutes, with their targets in open terrain. Almost at the same time, six Gazelle attack helicopters emerged from the woods North and fired HOT missiles toward the Soviet vehicles. One of the Helicopters exploded after releasing its weapons, hit by a Sa-9, but the 24 antitank missiles destroyed a dozen BMPs.

Then, radio communications went to hell as NATO Electronic Warfare saturated every available channel with interferences.While Nekrasov was trying to reestablish contact the advancing battalions, two American F4 approached the command post location at low altitude and dropped two CBU-52 cluster bombs on it.

Kamen, West Germany, D+4 0630 Zulu Time

"At last CinC-West has seen the light!" Pavel Leonidovich Alekseyev thought. 

As commander of the 20th Guards Motorized Division, he already had enough hard times in the previous days, and the idea to order his men a direct attack on Dortmund tormented him.
Now, the failure of the reconnaissance in force a few hours ago convinced his superiors of the necessity to change the axis of advance. The cost of that change has been paid by his division with five hundreds men and dozens of of vehicles.

Alekseyev approached his Chief of Staff, who was having a hard-gained 30 minutes sleep on a field cot. "Wake up Fyodor, we have some urgent work to do."
20th Guards Motorized Division Recon, 04:40 Zulu Time D+4


Thursday, 24 April 2014

The Next War - Operation Attila D+3 (NATO Land Move Finished)

With NATO command chain back to normality, the fighting in Central Europe continues....



NORTHAG Movements

North Army Group decided to focus on two strongpoints. 
The first is Hamburg, where 11th German Division and two Landwehr mech Brigades are entrenched. Mixed Bunderswehr brigades and elements from Danish Army hold the line North of the city.
Hamburg area, D+3 23:00 Zulu Time

The second strongpoint is of the course the Ruhr area, where French I Corps moved in defense with an impressive support in artillery, German reserve Regiments and the whole British 4th Division.
Moreover, NATO helicopters using NOE flying attacked every single crossroad and bridge East of their front line, making movement a nightmare for 1st Guards Tank Army.
The Ruhr area, D+3 23:00 Zulu Time
(the two Soviet airborne divisions landed in the Ruhr are in the only 2 hexes not occupied by NATO units)

Finally, a German airborne brigade was moved by helicopters at Kassel, taking back the undefended city.

CENTAG Movements

Not much happened in the Central Army Group area, except for US F4 and French Mirage making an heavy raid at Papa airport, Hungary. Despite taking several losses, the raid was able to destroy the SAM-2 battery covering the area and damage the airport staging several Soviet Mig-23 and the whole Hungarian air force. 
Frankfurt area, D+3 23:00 Zulu Time

SOUTHAG Movements

In South Army Group area, German II Corps retreated further West, while French II Corps formed a second line of defense behind them. German 1st alpine Division was unable to disengage and remained at Munich.
Munich area, D+3 23:00 Zulu Time

At nightfall of D+3, NATO situation does not look very good, but German reservists arrival gave NORTHAG some additional troops to hold the line.
Overall situation at D+3, 23:00 Zulu Time






Monday, 7 April 2014

***** FLASH ****** WP Raid over SHAPE

Due to an heavy SU 19 incursion over the Supreme Headquarters of Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) at Mons, Belgium, NATO command chain has been temporarily disabled and no orders are being issued to AFCENT.

General Bernard William Rogers, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, has been wounded during the attack but is expected back on the command chair in a few days.







Thursday, 3 April 2014

The Next War - Operation Attila - D+3 18:00 ZT

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Soviet Union Wartime Headquarters
Chekhov, D+3, 18:00 Zulu Time

"Have you read the last report from Korochkin?"  said Nikolai Ogarkov, throwing the 50-pages report at his subordinate. As Chief of the General Staff, he had lots of enemies, most of them people with enough power to destroy a man's life in a matter of seconds. But Comrade Marshal Viktor Kulikov was not one of them. They knew each other since the Great Patriotic War and he was one of the few high rank officers who shared his vision about the deep structural reforms needed in Soviet Union, both in the military and civilian apparatus.

Kulikov took the report with a sardonic grin. "It will be bigger than 'War and Peace' in a few days! I presume truth hides better inside a couple volumes of lies."

D+0
D+1
D+3

Steps
Variation
Steps
Variation
Steps
Variation
MIG 23
42
100%
37
88%
35
83%
MIG 21
180
100%
162
90%
142
79%
MIG 19
8
100%
7
88%
7
88%
SU 20
6
100%
6
100%
6
100%
SU 19
12
100%
12
100%
12
100%
SU 17
18
100%
18
100%
18
100%
SU 7
24
100%
21
88%
19
79%
MIG 17
48
100%
47
98%
46
96%
MIG 15
6
100%
6
100%
6
100%
MIG 21 R
32
100%
32
100%
30
94%
YAK 28 R
2
100%
2
100%
2
100%
L 29 R
6
100%
6
100%
5
83%
IL 14 R
6
100%
6
100%
6
100%
Transport
22
100%
22
100%
22
100%
16 Vozdushnaya Armiya situation assessment, D+3, 12:00 Zulu Time


"Yes, and it's a very harsh truth." Ogarkov replied. "TWENTY FIVE percent losses in our fighter squadrons! twenty percent of lost combat power, taking into account the reinforcements. And almost not a single word about damaged aircraft, that obviously 'will be almost totally repaired before D+4 dawn'. Repaired before dawn MY ASS. We perfectly know most of those aircraft will never fly again."
"Moreover, according to GRU, NATO has just received sixteen new F-4 squadrons from United States. SIXTEEN! Viktor, they are going to fuck us very, VERY hard."

"True, Nikolai. On the positive side, our land offensive is making good progress. NORTHAG is on the verge of collapse. The British are yet not able to establish a solid defence line, and we inflicted them heavy losses."

"Not good enough. " Ogarkov stood up from his chair. "Viktor, I want you to push West faster than ever. I want to see your T-72 FLY. I want them moving around strongpoints, slipping in defence gaps, JUMPING OVER OBSTACLES." 
"Just move WEST, Viktor. If we are fast and able enough, the second strategic echelon will close the deal."


Saturday, 22 March 2014

The Next War - Operation Attila - D+3 (WP Land Move finished)

Hamburg Stalemate

Not having enough forces to assault 11th German Division defences in Hamburg, the bulk of 2nd Guards Tank Army stopped in front of the city, while one Soviet Division moved South of Elbe to continue the encirclement manoeuvre. Unfortunately, fanatic resistance by a German reserve regiment prevented any further advance.

In the 20th Guards Army area, 94th Guards Division destroyed 42/4 Dutch brigade and 9/3 German Brigade.
2nd and 20th Guards Armies positions at D+3, 18:00 Zulu Time

Final Movements in North Army Group Area

In the final hours of D+3, the rearguards divisions of 3rd Shock and 1st Guards Tank Armies moved forward, getting ready to attack at the following dawn.
3rd Shock Army positions at D+3, 18:00 Zulu Time



3rd Shock and 1st Guards Tank Armies positions, D+3 18:00 Zulu Time
1st Guards Tank Army positions, D+3 18:00 Zulu Time


At 18:00, May 6, 1980 (D+3), a cursory look at the strategic situation in Europe Central Front suggested a triumphant advance of Warsaw Pact's steamroller, with little or no chance for the West to stop it before the Rhine. NATO propaganda had a hard time trying to persuade the public opinion that despite the appearances the battle had just begun, particularly after years of insane declarations about the "forward defence" strategy in West Germany.
Overall situation at 18:00, D+3 Zulu Time
NATO corps are not outlined due to the blurred defence lines  


Actually, Warsaw Pact forces had several problems, and not all of them came with a handy solution.

  • The Air Force was in terrible shape and probably unable to contest NATO superiority for more than 2 days
  • Poland defection and Czech revolts subtracted at least 15 Division from available forces, leaving a weakened North Germany Front and forcing the other Fronts to overextend their assigned area
  • Most Armies only had two more days of supplies available, after which they would have to receive them using railroads and Front Supply Heads
  • Lines of communication and supply were fragile and only lightly defended, with several key bridges and crossing constantly hammered by NATO helicopters and airplanes
However, the second strategic echelon of Soviet forces was expected in East Germany starting from D+7. If Pact's forces were able to keep momentum for another few days, the almost continuous flow of second-line Divisions would solve most of the problems.



Friday, 21 March 2014

The Next War - Operation Attila - Timeline

Due to an error in days counting, I have revised and changed the overall timeline of the posts.

The (hopefully) exact timeline is now as follows:
April 29, 1980  D-4  turn 1, tension
April 30, 1980  D-3  turn 1, tension
May 1, 1980     D-2  turn 2, tension
May 2, 1980     D-1  turn 2, tension
May 3, 1980     D+0  turn 3, war begins, WP use chemical weapons
May 4, 1980     D+1  turn 3, war
May 5, 1980     D+2  turn 4, war, Hanover falls 
May 6, 1980     D+3  turn 4, war
May 7, 1980     D+4  turn 5, war, Munich and Nuremberg fall
May 8, 1980     D+5  turn 5, war, W. Germany troops evacuate Hamburg
May 9, 1980     D+6  turn 6, war, WP supply heavily damaged by air attacks
May 10, 1980    D+7  turn 6, war, NEDEFOR formed
May 11, 1980    D+8  turn 7, war, Netherlands Surrender, Denmark invaded
May 12, 1980    D+9  turn 7, war, NATO Operation "Hand of God" starts
May 13, 1980    D+10 turn 8, war, WP supply lines collapsed
                                  WP 2nd echelon troops arriving in W. Germany
May 14, 1980    D+11 turn 8, war, NATO SOUTHAG retreats 75 km
May 15, 1980    D+12 turn 9, war  Hamburg falls

I noticed the error while reading the New York Times from the first day of war:


Wednesday, 19 March 2014

The Next War - Operation Attila - D+3 (2)

Warsaw Pact Land Movement continues. 
Losses are moderate until now, but the decreasing chemicals effectiveness is giving me some problems. Moreover, without the standard rules +2 modifier in Division vs. Brigade attacks, a well-placed NATO brigade can become a hard nut to crack.


Battle for Hanover

10 Guards Division assaulted frontally the city centre, destroying 4/16 Belgian brigade defending it.

20 Guards Army North pincer had heavy fighting with 8/3 German brigade, that held ground for almost 36 hours stopping 2 assaulting divisions before retreating inside Hanover. Two Czech divisions of the Army rushed in to exploit the breakthrough, but they were unable to complete the encirclement and destroy the Dutch SAM site West of the city.

3rd Shock Army South pincer was not lucky too, as 2/1 German brigade stopped its forward Division at Hameln.

The rest of 3rd Shock Army, with heavy artillery support, smashed BAOR defences around Bielefield / Herford, encircling two German brigades at Gutersloh airport.


3rd Shock and 20th Guards Armies situation


Rush to the Ruhr

1st Guards Tank Army continued moving toward the Rhine. 
1st British Recce Regiment, directly on its advance path, was hit by SSM delivered chemicals and subsequently surrounded and destroyed by 20th and 55th Guards Divisions.

The rest of the Army, even though unable to use the helicopter-ridden autobahn, moved West at double speed and reached the outskirts of the Ruhr. Its spearhead Division, 27th Guards, crossed Lippe river and stopped 30 km from the Rhine.

Inside the Ruhr urban area, the survivors of two Soviet airborne Divisions dispersed and fortified to better defend from the continuous air-to-ground attacks by NATO helicopters.
1st Guards Tank Army advance