The Next War, Operation Attila - D+12, Midday

Merseburg Airfield, East Germany, 10:00 Zulu Time

"Are you JOKING, Comrade? What's that piece of garbage under my wing?"

Air Major Koloda Stroganov was out of his grace; he simply could not believe what he was seeing mounted on the pilons of every MIG-21 of his squadron.

The ground crew technician sprang to attention before answering. 

"It's a K-13 model A air to air missile, Comrade Major! It has been properly and thoroughly tested tonight and I can assure it's working perfectly, Comrade Major!"

Stroganov struggled for a few seconds against the impulse of hitting the soldier with his helmet. Then, he placed himself just a few inches from the technician's face.

"I don't FUCKING CARE if it's been tested! Do you have an idea of the time needed to lock on a target using that piece of shit? TWENTY seconds! Do you think I have TWENTY FUCKING SECONDS up there?"

"I want you to remove NOW that pathetic excuse for a missile and replace it with the usual, reliable, FAST K-13 model R, Object 320. IS THAT CLEAR ENOUGH?"

Stroganov's wingman approached, shaking his head. "Leave the boy alone, Koloda Andreyevich. Do you really think he came up with this idea on his own? Obviously some brass here decided that K-13 A is more than enough to shoot down fat, slow, overloaded NATO bombers. Too bad they sometime have pumped-up, fast, overarmed escort fighters with them."

Seeing a hope, the technician tried to justify himself. "That's how the Lieutenant said, Comrade Major! Yesterday evening we were ordered to spare the K-13 R missiles for MIG-23 wings only and to mount K-13 A on everything else! I'm sorry, Comrade Major!"

Major Stroganov sighed, trying to calm down. "I'm going to talk to the Colonel. Keep the boys in the cockpits, engines off until I come back."

The Next War, Operation Attila - D+12, Hamburg has fallen

A quick preview of the ongoing Warsaw Pact's land move at D+12.....
Here's the first page of May 15, 1980 morning edition of  "The Times", the infamous capitalist newspaper.

The Next War, Operation Attila - D+12, Air War

The key to the entire war has become the air war and its effects on Warsaw Pact's supply.
The recent breakthrough in SOUTHAG defenses by 1st Czech Army probably forced a change of strategy at SHAEF, as the majority of the available planes were allocated to Central Sector.

Air Combat Phase

Warsaw Pact focused its Air Superiority aircraft in Central and Baltic sectors, assigning every available bomber to support Operation Boreal Light - Soviet paratroopers attack to Copenhagen.

NATO took a big risk by assigning practically every available airplane to ground support in North and Central sector, including the F-15 wings.

Despite the absence of any escort and the interception by 600+ enemy fighters, NATO fighter-bombers were able to penetrate the battlefield with a total loss of 50 planes (3-4 steps) destroyed and 75 damaged.

NATO Ground Support in North Sector

NATO Ground Support in Central Sector

Operation "Hand of God" Continues

NATO air campaign against Warsaw Pact's supply system and infrastructures continued, using an unprecedented quantity of airplanes. Soviet intelligence estimated 1500+ NATO bombers and fighter-bombers were allocated to the operation.

Despite that, the recent buildup of air defenses and reorganization of supply depots by Warsaw Pact brought some results. Only 4 out of 6 supply lines were interdicted, and only 3 out of 6 main supply depots were forced to redeploy backwards.

Therefore, a small but significant flow of ammunition and fuel will reach Warsaw Pact's front division in the next few hours, at least in Baltic and North air sectors.

NATO air losses during D+12 air strikes were reported as follows:

Airplane	Shot Down	Damaged	dest/damage steps
A-10	15	17	1/1
F-4	3	30	0/2
Jaguar	16	32	1/2
Mirage	4	45	0/3

Operation Hand of God, D+12

Wild Weasel Strike

Ground Strike

Supply Interdiction Strike

Front Supply Head Displacement

The Next War, Operation Attila - D+11, NATO Land Phase

The big news is NATO is now operating at division level wherever possible.
This change of strategy will make WP attacks very costly, but reduced NATO reserves to an almost absolute zero; should WP be able to achieve a breakthrough somewhere, there will be nothing to stop its ride.

NORTHAG

In the Baltic area, NATO Command issued a suicide order to move South of Hamburg to a WG mech regiment. Resident members of the Rote Armee Fraktion ("Red Army Detachment", Germany's liberation movement) declared that the unit's reserve soldiers were forced to obey under the threat of execution of their families by NATO Military Police.

Baltic / Hamburg Area

The NEDEFOR / NORTHAG sector was reinforced by 3rd British Mobile Force and regrouped most of its brigades into divisions, forming a solid defense on the Ruhr - Arnhem - Apeldorn - North Sea line. Moreover, US III Corps started operating as independent unit and was assigned a part of the front.

German 12th Armored Division conducted the first real NATO counterattack, engaging 20th Guards Tank Division East of Arnhem with the decisive support of 100+ AH-1 Cobra attack helicopters. 

Soviet 20th Guards Tank Division was effectively destroyed by the counterattack; full details of the engagement can be found in the 1GTA report to GSFG.

NEDEFOR  / NORTHAG Area

CENTAG

CENTAG deployment remained more or less unchanged, with US V Corps covering the 225 km front from the Rhur urban area to Darmstadt, south of Frankfurt.

CENTAG Area

SOUTHAG

Facing the breakthrough by Czech 1st Army and the almost complete absence of operational reserves, SOUTHAG was forced to retreat 70 km West, leaving the cities of Wurzburg and Augsburg without military garrison.

Moreover, French II Corps had to stop its transfer to NORTHAG and help stabilizing the SOUTHAG front. 

According to the reconnaissance companies of Czech 15th Motorized Division, the now free citizens of Augsburg have burned down banks and government buildings and formed a local Soviet in order to better communicate with Warsaw Pact officers and authorities.

SOUTHAG Area

Overview at D+11, 22:00 Zulu Time

Here's the strategic situation at D+11, 22:00 ZT.
If someone wants to see the full details using Vassal, the save file is here.

The Next War 1985 - Operation Hand of God with Command

We're working on a revised The Next War scenario set in 1985, more or less 5 years later than the original ones.

Five years could seem a very short time, but there was a lot of changes during that period. Ronald Reagan became President of the United States, and Margaret Thatcher was Great Britain's Prime Minister.

I'm sure a lot of people have a lot of different ideas about these two political figures, but from a purely military point of view they made the difference. They marked the end of the so-called Detente diplomacy and started (Reagan in particular) a heavy program of rearmament to face USSR "Evil Empire".

In 1985, after four years of Reagan's presidency, US Army forces had upgraded their M-60 and M-113 to M-1A1 Abrams and M-2 Bradley, had a good number of the new Stinger SAM missiles, and had finally recovered from the "Vietnam Syndrome". US Air Force had been modernized, its tactics revised, and was ready to face the final phase of the Cold War. US Navy had acquired new vessels to reinforce AFCENT in case of war, and new POMCUS sites had been established in Netherlands.

Obviously there's a lot of things to change in game terms: order of battles, reinforcements, equipment upgrades and so on.

One of the main points to quantify is the 1985 technology gap between NATO and WP and its effect on the battlefield. To have an idea of this last point, I've used Matrix Games' Command to simulate a typical "The Next War" situations.

I presume at least some of you know "Command": an air / naval warfare simulator taking its roots from "Harpoon", but more advanced. For example, while Harpoon simulates the air launch capacity of a USA CV numerically, Command incorporates all the single elements: internal lifts and their max load, Air Boss skill, number and type of catapults, bridge occupation and so on. The air launch capacity of the CV is simply the result of using all these.

The scenario background is taken from our game's "Operation Hand of God" , an operation launched by NATO at D+9 to interdict / destroy WP supply lines.

I prepared two scenarios: the first set in 1980, the second in 1985. Both scenarios use the same background, same attack plan and more or less the same forces, only updated to their more recent version for 1985.

In both scenarios, WP advanced to the Bremen - Osnabruck - Paderborn line, and is using the Osnabruck - Hanover - Brunswick - Magdeburg autobahns as its main supply line; the NATO raid takes off from Netherlands, with the objective of bombarding the supply installations in Magdeburg area.

NATO raid has the following composition:

• SEAD3 (6xF-4G Wild Weasel), to attack SAM mobile sites around Padeborn and open up the way for the rest of the strike. 
• SEAD1 (12xF-4G Wild Weasel), to attack SAM sites around Magdeburg
• Iron1 (6xF-111D), to attack WP supply facilities around Magdeburg
• Chief1 (1xEC-130E), supporting the raid with radar coverage and Offensive ECM
• Chief2 (1xEF-111A, 1985 only), supporting the raid with offensive ECM

Warsaw Pact forces have the following composition:

• Several Soviet Divisions, with SA-6, SA-4 and ZSU-57 batteries (equivalent to the Soviet B divisional flak)
• Several mobile SAM battalions with SA-4 (equivalent to the WP C-3 mobile flak)
• Several Soviet fixed SAM with SA-3 and SA-5 (equivalent to Soviet B-3 fixed flak)

NATO plan for the raid

1980 Scenario AAR

Since the start, Chief1 radars detects previously unknown SAM mobile sites of the Soviet Army. They will be marked as "hostile" soon.

At 05:22 ZT, all NATO strikes are en route. SEAD3 begins to target enemy radars with AGM-78D HARM missiles.

At 05:29 ZT, SEAD3 has destroyed almost every enemy radar in Padeborn area and begins returning to base. SEAD1 and Iron1 missions can fly thru the area without problems.

At 05:30 ZT, Soviet Army SAMs South of Padeborn acquire NATO planes and launch a missile salvo against them, downing an F-4G.

At 05:38 ZT, SEAD1 enters its prosecution area and begins targeting enemy radars. WP SAMs answer with another missile salvo, downing a second F-4G and an approaching F-111D

At 05:41 ZT, air battle over Magdeburg is quite hot.

At 05:46 ZT, almost every WP radar system in Magdeburg area has been destroyed, at the price of another F-4G downed.

At 05:52 ZT, NATO planes begin to return to base. WP hits an F-111 maneuvering to get back.

1980 Losses and Expenditures

The raid was a success, destroying almost every supply objective in the assigned area, even though the cost for NATO was quite high (5 planes, 20% losses).

Overall, my feeling is that the results are more or less in line with what happened in "The Next War"

SIDE: NATO

===========================================================

LOSSES:

-------------------------------

2x F-111D Aardvark

3x F-4G Phantom II [Wild Weasel V]

EXPENDITURES:

------------------

30x AGM-45B Shrike [ARM]

34x AGM-78D Standard [ARM]

81x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]

84x Mk82 500lb Snakeeye

SIDE: WP SAM

===========================================================

LOSSES:

-------------------------------

EXPENDITURES:

------------------

1x SA-10b Grumble [5V55R]

40x SA-5c Gammon [5V28M5]

SIDE: Soviet SAM

===========================================================

LOSSES:

-------------------------------

1x Building (Odd Pair HF [PRV-13])

2x Building (Square Pair [5N62])

1x Building (Tall King C [P-14])

3x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19])

EXPENDITURES:

------------------

41x SA-3c Goa [5V27D, V-601PD]

36x SA-5c Gammon [5V28M5]

SIDE: WP Supply

===========================================================

LOSSES:

-------------------------------

2x Bridge (Two-lane 60 Tons)

2x Diesel (750k Liter Tank)

2x Diesel Bunker (750k Liter Tank)

EXPENDITURES:

------------------

SIDE: Soviet Army

===========================================================

LOSSES:

-------------------------------

3x 23mm ZU-23-2

3x Radar (Thin Skin B HF [PRV-16])

3x SA-4a Ganef [2P24] TEL

2x SA-4b Ganef [2P24] TEL

2x SA-6a Gainful [2P25] TEL

2x SA-7b Grail [SPW-60PB] MANPADS

9x Vehicle (Pat Hand [1S32])

2x Vehicle (Straight Flush [1S91])

EXPENDITURES:

------------------

38x 23mm ZU-23-2 Burst [20 rnds]

61x SA-4a Ganef [3M8M1]

111x SA-4b Ganef [3M8M2]

38x SA-6a Gainful [9M336]

3x SA-6b Gainful [9M336]

1985 Scenario AAR

The 1985 scenario unfolded more or less like 1980 one, but the EF-111 Raven supporting SEAD1 and Iron1 mission made a big difference in terms of NATO losses. Only a single F-4G was downed, and most of WP missiles were running blind after launch due to the powerful ECM emissions of Raven1.

1985 Losses and Expenditures

SIDE: NATO
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
1x F-4G Phantom II [Wild Weasel V]


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
20x AGM-45B Shrike [ARM]
36x AGM-78D Standard [ARM]
4x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
96x Mk82 500lb Snakeeye



SIDE: WP SAM
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
1x SA-10b Grumble [5V55R]
60x SA-5c Gammon [5V28M5]


SIDE: Soviet SAM
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
1x Building (Odd Pair HF [PRV-13])
2x Building (Square Pair [5N62])
1x Building (Tall King C [P-14])
1x SA-3c Goa Quad Rail
2x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS
4x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19])
2x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125])


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
19x SA-3c Goa [5V27D, V-601PD]
27x SA-5c Gammon [5V28M5]



SIDE: WP Supply
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
2x Bridge (Two-lane 60 Tons)
1x Diesel (750k Liter Tank)
2x Diesel Bunker (750k Liter Tank)


EXPENDITURES:
------------------



SIDE: Soviet Army
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
2x 23mm ZU-23-2
3x Radar (Thin Skin B HF [PRV-16])
2x SA-4a Ganef [2P24] TEL
1x SA-4b Ganef [2P24] TEL
3x SA-6a Gainful [2P25] TEL
1x SA-7b Grail [SPW-60PB] MANPADS
9x Vehicle (Pat Hand [1S32])
2x Vehicle (Straight Flush [1S91])


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
57x 23mm ZU-23-2 Burst [20 rnds]
74x SA-4a Ganef [3M8M1]
121x SA-4b Ganef [3M8M2]
7x SA-6a Gainful [9M336]

The Next War, Operation Attila - D+11, 1st Guards Tank Army -> GSFG report update

******************* RESTRICTED GSFG CMD STAFF ONLY ********************



FROM; 1st Guards Tank Army Cmd

TO: Group of Soviet Forces Germany Cmd

SUBJECT: Recent engagement in Arnhem urban area




******************* RESTRICTED GSFG CMD STAFF ONLY ********************




As requested, a detailed report of the recent events in Arnhem area follows:

1. At D+10 23:00, NATO WG 2 MechDiv(-) began a disengagement attempt from 20G TankDiv
2. At D+10 23:10, following directive GSFG/117, 20G TankDiv actively pursued the enemy retreating units, despite ammunition shortage.
3. At D+11 02:11, 20G TankDiv ended pursuit, with NATO WG 2 MechDiv(-) retreating to Arnhem urban area under cover of NATO WG 12 MechDiv(-)
4. At D+11 02:25, an estimated number of 100+ NATO AH-1 Cobra engaged 20G TankDiv with AT missiles.
5. At D+11 03:20, with NATO AH still engaging, 20G TankDiv depleted its AA missiles stocks, after 17 confirmed enemy AH kills. 20G TankDiv was recently stripped of its accompanying SA-4 AA Btn due to recent directive GSFG/203 regarding redistribution of AA assets to the rear supply lines.
6. At D+11 05:00, with NATO AH still engaging, 20G TankDiv reported a total loss of 94 T-72, 14 T-64, 80+ BMP-1, 800+ personnel and requested permission to retreat under 1GTA AA umbrella. The permission was granted by 1GTA CMD.
7. At D+11 05:17, NATO WG 12 MechDiv(-) attacked the disengaging elements of 20G TankDiv(-), effectively destroying its efficiency as independent combat unit.

1GTA CMD advises a revision of directive GSFG/117 and suggests a more cautious approach when pursuing retreating enemy elements in range of known enemy AH airfields.






******************* END ********************

The Next War, Operation Attila - D+10, WP Land Phase

Here we are again, with Warsaw Pact momentarily (I hope) slowed down by critical supply problems.
Meanwhile, second echelon Divisions started entering the battlefield, and there's A LOT of them.

The Hand of God Hits Again

Warsaw Pact land operations were heavily disrupted by the continuation of NATO's "Operation Hand of God".

Dozens of F-111 and Mirage air strikes, supported by Wild Weasel SEAD missions, almost completely devastated the supply lines and infrastructures in Central East Germany.

Operation Hand of God, Phase 2

F-4 Wild Weasel SEAD strike

Air-Ground Strike

Front Supply Head Displacement



Warsaw Pacts air defenses were able to shot down or damage a good amount of the attackers, but not enough to avoid the collapse of the supply system. During the last 48 hours, only South Front (Munich - Nuremberg area) and 2nd Guards Tank Army (Hamburg area) received enough fuel and ammunition to continue the offensive at the desired pace.

As a consequence of the current unsatisfactory situation, Vice Commander of Group of Soviet Forces in Germany Colonel General Alexei Lizichev has been recalled to Moscow to report. His role has been assigned to the Marshal of the Soviet Union Sergey Sokolov, who previously served as Commander in Chief of Soviet Forces in Afghanistan.

Under Marshal Sokolov directives, WP air defenses deployment was completely revised in the last 24 hours, emphasizing the concept of key areas defense and dropping the "multiple supply lines" strategy that proved so ineffective.

WP Land Phase, NORTHAG

In Denmark, 106th Guards Airmobile Division attack against Copenhagen was held off by Danish defenders, primarily thanks to the support of a West German attack helicopters squadron that was subsequently forced to land at Vaerlose airfield, just North of the city.

Denmark Situation

In 2nd Guards Tank Army area, 6th Motorized Rifle Division continued the mopping up operations in Hamburg, destroying a West German Mechanized Reserve Regiment. Only small areas of resistance in the Northwest remains under NATO control.

5th Armored Division advanced North, freeing Kiel and crossing the Canal.

Hamburg Area

In the Bremen / Oldenburg region, 20th Guards and 3rd Shock Army completed encircling the remnants of German I Corps. A couple of reconnaissance attacks against NATO defensive positions were repulsed due to a WG artillery regiment supporting the defenders and supply problems.

Bremen Area

In the 1st Guards Tank Army area, the encircled British 1/2 Armored Brigade was destroyed. Moreover, a concentric attack against Dutch 1st Division, conducted by 5 divisions and 3 artillery regiments, caused heavy losses among the defenders.

1 Guards Tank Army at Netherlands Border

WP Land Phase, CENTAG

As usual, nothing new on the CENTAG Front.

WP Land Phase, SOUTHAG

In Munich, Hungarian Army destroyed French 2/11 Paratroops Brigade, with the support of the newly arrived 6th Soviet Army.

West of Nuremberg, 1st Czech Army took advantage of the now depleted II German Corps defense line, attacking and destroying French 4/8 Mech Brigade and advancing 45 km toward Stuttgart.

Munich and Nuremberg Area

Overall Situation at D+10, 22:00 Zulu Time

.