Simulating an approaching conflict?

This post is not directly on wargames, but I'd like it share it anyway as it's related for sure. 

Ulf Krahn, Man-in-Stockholm, Co-Designer for 1985: Deadly Northern Lights and The Dogs of War, founder of Terranis Systems Ltd., Ring-Bearer and Barrel-Rider, is now in the (hopefully) final phases for delivering a tactical module software connecting with the Leopard 1 and 2 MBT simulators used by the Hellenic Army. 

Way to go, Ulf!!!

http://www.terranis.se/en/news-5609627

Leopard 1A5 - Lot of space compared to a T-72, but Ulf takes most of it.

The Dogs of War - NATO barracks deployment

The Dogs of War development continues.....here's some key points:

• OOB for both NATO and Warsaw Pact is complete, with some points still to verify
• Discussion on equipment / units values is finally over, probably by exhaustion
• A VASSAL module for playtest is more or less 50% ready

Setting up units on VASSAL also allowed me to better evaluate the strong and weak points of NATO deployment in BAOR sector. The result wasn't a complete surprise, but I must say it looks worse than I imagined.

In short, the area covered by The Dogs of War will include four different NATO Corps, as represented in the excellent Area Of Responsibility map prepared by Tony (and including his exact assignment in 1989!):

• West German I Corps (NORTHAG)
• British Army Of the Rhine (NORTHAG)
• Belgian I Corps (NORTHAG)
• West German III Corps (CENTAG)

This is all safe and sound, except that Belgian I Corps is not there. Most of Belgian units were relocated in Belgium or along the Rhine river during the early '80s, leaving in place only a single brigade and a battalion of covering forces. This leaves a gap 40 km wide between BAOR and WG III Corps, with practically no units stationed there during peacetime. 

The distance that must be covered by the Belgian forces could be handled if NATO had sufficient advanced warning, but it would be a critical problem in a surprise attack scenario. In that case, NATO should quickly adopt emergency countermeasures, like moving the WG III Corps boundary further North and use part of 2nd PanzerGrenadier Division as a covering force in order to gain time.

Well, I presume we'll discover soon how dire the situation is :)

The Dogs of War - Some BAOR counters

Order of Battle for The Dogs of War is almost completed....we're still working on some battalions' values and on the exact composition of Bundeswehr's divisional artillery, but most of work is done.

As an eye candy, here's BAOR 1st Armoured Division, in all its royal majesty!

Legend

RHA: Royal Horse Artillery

FD: Field Artillery

RH: Royal Hussars

RTR: Royal Tank Regiment

QN: Queen's Regiment

GH: Green Howards

RIR: Royal Irish Rangers

QOH: Queen's Own Hussars

WG: Welsh Guards

The Dogs Of War - Strategic Overview

Development of The Dogs of War continues.....today, three hours on Skype with Anthony Morphet and Ulf Krahn.

As usual in the first phases, most of the discussion covered the details about NATO response time to a possible Warsaw Pact attack. My personal opinion on NATO's capabilities to react quickly are quite pessimistic, particularly for some countries, while Anthony and Ulf have a more "neutral" point of view.

The global scenario postulates that NATO political branch (i.e., the single governments of NATO countries) recognizes that war is unavoidable 48 hours before Warsaw Pact forces cross the Inner German Border, thus giving the following general schedule:

• At H-48, NATO issues a SIMPLE ALERT order. Troops assemble and equip at barracks and then moves into hides (waiting / regrouping areas near the barracks).
• At H-24, NATO issues a GENERAL ALERT order. Troops move to predefined battle positions, most countries start mobilizing, reinforcements begin moving out. 

On the Warsaw Pact side, the following reorganization will take place before starting the hostilities:

1. Group of Soviet Forces in Germany becomes Western Theater HQ, in command for all operations from Baltic coast to Northern Italy.
2. Three Front HQ are created, using the command staff from the already existing Northern Group of Forces, Central Group of Forces and Southern Group of Forces.
3. Northern Front directs operations from Baltic Coast to Kassel
4. Central Front directs operations from Kassel to Wurzburg
5. Southern Front directs operations from Wurzburg to Austria / Italy

The scenario considers the Hannover - Kassel sector as the Warsaw Pact's main thrust, so the area covered by The Dogs of War will be critical for deciding the war. Without too many details, here's a summary of Warsaw Pact plan for Northern and Central Fronts.

Warsaw Pact Plan - Click for details

Other important changes from Less Than 60 Miles should be:

• NATO Command Chain will be fully represented. This means that each NATO Corps will be a separate entity with its own HQ, Command Points and EW Points. This allows Warsaw Pact to exploit the old, effective strategy of attacking along the boundaries of the enemy formations.
• An optional rule will allow to use artillery in a more abstract way, assigning artillery battalions to a specific HQ and keeping them off-map.

The Dogs of War - On Map and More

As you maybe know, The Dogs of War will be the second module of our C3 series, covering the British Army Of the Rhine sector during the dramatic events of 1985's World War Three. 

Focused on Command, Control and Communication problems and on John Boyd's OODA Cycle, the C3 Series takes a different approach on several wargame mechanisms and forces players to face three equally dangerous foes: the enemy, their own plan and time. 

As John Boyd wrote:

"The goal is to collapse adversary’s system into confusion and disorder causing him to over and under react to activity that appears simultaneously menacing as well as ambiguous, chaotic, or misleading."

Ok, enough introduction. The map is proceeding very well, as you may see in the images below. We're still missing several labels, bridges and airfields.

From a strict mobility point of view, BAOR Sector has a much better terrain than Fulda for conducting a  mechanized offensive: lots of plain, a great road network and only a few gentle hills.

From a combat point of view, it's probably worse than US V Corps Sector for the attacker: The Weser river is an obstacle that cannot be avoided, and the Britons can use several cities and dozens of small towns as strongpoints to slow down Warsaw Pact's advance.

Map Overview

Detail of Paderborn Area

Detail of Goslar Area

Meanwhile, Anthony Morphet is preparing a first version of NATO Order of Battle using his on-field knowledge. British, Belgian and West German forces will be included, and I'm sure we'll have infinite discussions ranging from timings of artillery operations to the names of the Battalions :)

1985: Deadly Northern Lights - "The Gates of Fire" AAR

What follow is an After Action Report of a playtest session for 1985: Deadly Northern Lights Scenario One, titled "The Gates of Fire". I will not enter in detailed explanations of rules or combat mechanics, as I would like to keep the narration flowing and short.

The scenario covers the Soviet offensive in Northern Norway during the first 10 days of war. Both NATO and Warsaw Pact have only a fraction of the ground forces normally available in Central Europe, and similar problems for moving them where needed. The real fight is in the sky and at sea.

More detailed info on 1985:DNL can be found at the TRLGames official page.

Note: Click on the pictures to see them full-size!

The Gates Of Fire

Time: July 24, 1985
Location: Northern Norway

For the second time during the century, Norway finds itself at the margins of a conflict for the control of Europe. Once again, ports and airfields along its never-ending coast are a primary strategic objective, allowing to cut or protect NATO's jugular vein: the North Atlantic line of communication.

Orders for Soviet Northern Fleet and Murmansk Front are to take control of Norwegian airfields and ports and use them whenever possible to move forward the supplies needed by 6th Combined Army, the ground element of the offensive. 

NATO Commander of Allied Forces North Norway (NON) has very limited resources available. His main expected reinforcements are the United Kingdom / Netherlands Amphibious Force, its escort task force centered on HMS Invincible, and a US CV Battlegroup around D+6.

D+0 - WP Turn

The weak Sør-Varanger Garrison Battalion is no match for Soviet 6th Combined Army and it's easily overran. Despite that, its main tasks are accomplished: slow down enemy advance and destroy key bridges near the border.

 More than 20 Soviet submarines of Foxtrot, Kilo and Tango classes enter Norwegian Sea. 

Submarines are followed by part of Soviet Northern Fleet, transporting 61st Marine Brigade and several days of combat supply.
Two RAF Buccaneer Squadrons take off from Northern Scotland to attack the Soviet Task Force. They are intercepted by Soviet Su27 supported by ECM, but the attack is fended off by Norwegian F-16 patrolling the area.

RAF Buccaneers launch a Stand-Off attack on the Soviet Fleet, inflicting some losses to the transport ships and to the Marines embarked.

D+1 - NATO Turn

Despite this success, the situation at dawn of D+1 is not good for NATO. Banak Airfield has been captured by a Soviet Paratroops Battalion, and Soviet 61st Marine Brigade debarked 30km North of Bardufoss Airfield.

With time running out, NATO Commander takes a risky decision. The UK/NL Amhibious Force is not going to wait for its Dutch component, but will sail immediately for Tromsø in three different Task Forces.

Soviet Naval Aviation was hoping for this chance. Two Regiments of Tu22 Backfire and Tu16 Bear with heavy escort successfully intercept the Transport Task Force, and the weak NATO air cover is not able to drove them off.
The resulting Stand-Off attack is a carnage for the British transports, with hundreds of Marines drowned in the icy waters.

Emboldened by the result, Soviets launch a second attack wave of Tu16 Bears against the Britons, sinking more troops transport and damaging HMS Liverpool and HMS Hermione.

 D+2 - WP Turn

The following day, RAF seeks revenge against the Soviet Task Force and successfully intercepts before it leaves the area. The ensuing Stand-Off attack damages two Soviet Destroyers of Krivak and Kotlin class.

Taking advantage from the absence of NATO Air Superiority, worn out by previous combats, a Soviet Paratroops Battalion is airdropped East of Tromsø.

Having reorganized after debarking, Soviet 61st Marine Brigade assaults Bardufoss Airfield. A preliminary SEAD Mission successfully suppress most of NATO AA batteries, and is followed by a full strength attack with heavy air support. After 20 hours of combat, NATO garrison is forced to surrender.

At nightfall of D+2, NATO situation is further deteriorated.

D+3 - WP Turn

Warsaw Pact reorganizes its naval forces, while 6th Combined Army struggles to advance due to supply problems.

D+4: NATO Turn

The arrival of US CVBG Forrestal is more than welcomed by NATO. US  and UK Squadrons immediately launch a strike against a Soviet Task Force that finished unloading supplies at Banak Airfield. F-14 squadrons inflict heavy losses to the Soviet interceptors, and the combined Strike sinks more enemy merchant ships.

At the end of D+4, Warsaw Pact partially reactivates Banak Airfield.

D+5: WP Turn

Soviet Il-76s begin landing at Banak Airfield, bringing in an SA-6 AA Battalion and more supply.

Banak Airfield also allows to deploy Soviet helicopters forward, and to transport a Spetsnaz Battalion just South of the town of Alta. In the ensuing assault, supported by Mi-24 helicopters and Mig-27 Fighter-Bombers, Soviet special forces capture the town.

The situation at the end of D+6:

Conclusions

I've called it a day at the end of Turn 4, as NATO has no more chances to change the final verdict: Warsaw Pact Substantial Victory. 

NATO made several critical errors right from the start, culminating in the disastrous deployment of UK/NL Amphibious Force. Warsaw Pact had his share of mistakes too, but differently from NATO he can afford some, at least in this scenario.

Next AAR: The Prize, Warsaw Pact surprise attack on Stockholm!

"1985: Deadly Northern Lights" Official Box Art!

At last, the pieces of Warsaw Pact's Northern offensive are falling into place....
Here's the official box art! More to come in the next few days.